NFL Week 4 Picks and Preview

George and Rusty give you their weekly predictions, thoughts and ramblings as Sunday approaches. This isn’t just a friendly pick-off, there’s McMenamins at stake here.

Panthers at Bears

There’s a lot to love about this matchup but I’m keeping my eye on Julius Peppers as he faces his old team. As bad as the Bears have looked since that win over Atlanta they’ll get things rolling this week against an average Carolina defense. Cam Newton will be entertaining as always, however.

You have got to LOVE watching this guy compete

Bills at Bengals

The trendy pick of the week is to have the Bengals upset the Bills but I’m not buying it. This Buffalo team has shown a lot of character in comeback wins over the Raiders and Patriots to lose to a team like Cincinnati. Fred Jackson is a top three NFL running back right now and provides a security blanket for Ryan Fitzpatrick. He also kills it for my fantasy team on a weekly basis.

Titans at Browns

I still can’t believe the kind of year Matt Hasselbeck is having though I shouldn’t be too surprised given the aerial display the NFL has put on so far. Chris Johnson finally gets going in this one, which is good for the Titans as Kenny Britt is out for the year with a torn ACL. Colt McCoy played just well enough to beat the Bengals last week and came through in the clutch but he still needs to be more consistent.

Lions at Cowboys

Is there a better tandem in the league right now than Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson? The answer is unequivocally no, as the Dallas secondary is soon to find out. The Lions had better make stopping Demarcus Ware a priority given their quarterback’s health concerns, however.

Vikings at Chiefs

Minnesota will get that elusive first win this week against a pitiful Chiefs team that doesn’t have too much to be optimistic about. The jury is still out as to whether Matt Cassel is a franchise QB, which will make for a tough decision if the Chiefs end up winning the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes, a distinct possibility at this point. Adrian Peterson should have a field day regardless of McNabb’s play.

Redskins at Rams

Sam Bradford is doing all he can to win right now but the Rams simply don’t have the talent to win right now. Their receiving corps might be the worst in the league and without Steven Jackson they have no playmakers on offense. Rex Grossman and co. should get plenty of opportunities in this one.

49ers at Eagles

As bad as the Eagles have been against the run lately stopping Frank Gore is really all they have to worry about this week. That and keeping Michael Vick healthy. The 49ers defense has been solid so far but they haven’t seen speed like this yet.

Saints at Jaguars

New Orleans has been on a tear since losing the Packers in week one. They might now lose another game all year and I have them playing in the super bowl at some point. Jack Del Rio’s job security is based on the play of Blaine Gabbert through the rest of the season.

Steelers at Texans

Despite giving up a ten point lead in the fourth last week the Texans have shown more maturity this year than they have in the past. The talent has been in Houston for a while now they just haven’t put it all together. A game against the Steelers is always a great opportunity to make a statement and I expect the Texans to come out hungry. It’ll be close, but the Pittsburgh offensive line is struggling and that’s not good news when going up against Mario Williams.

Giants at Cardinals

The Cardinals find themselves in a classic dilemma; they traded a high draft pick for a backup quarterback that they hoped to be worthy of the “franchise” label only to get middling results. It hasn’t worked out so well for the Chiefs in Matt Cassel, but obviously Matt Schaub is a counterexample. The jury is still out on Kevin Kolb but one thing’s for sure; he’ll need to step up his play if this team is to win the weak NFC West.

Is Kevin Kolb a franchise QB?

Falcons at Seahawks

The Seattle offense showed signs of life last week with the return of Sidney Rice. These teams have the same record right now but the Falcons will win this one on Matt Ryan’s arm, with or without Roddy White. Start Julio Jones this week if he’s on your fantasy team.

Broncos at Packers

This one could get ugly. Tebow time?

Patriots at Raiders

Two of the league’s worst pass defenses match up, so I’ll take the team with Tom Brady under center. Points will be scored on both sides and the Raiders running game should do very well but it won’t be enough to keep pace with what New England can do with their passing game.

Dolphins at Chargers

Chad Henne is a classic case of “just good enough to get you beat”. Unfortunately the Dolphins do not have any better options at the position. Tony Sparano’s job is on the line right now though I don’t think he’s done a terrible job with what he has to work with. San Diego cruises while Antonio Gates finally gets going.

Jets at Ravens

Rex Ryan’s team doesn’t get manhandled often like the Jets did in Oakland, which is why I expect them to come out on fire against a physical opponent like the Ravens. It’ll be a slugfest and cable permitting I’ll certainly be tuning in. Mark Sanchez outplays Flacco to get the Win.

Colts at Buccaneers

The Colts’ defense played its heart out against Pittsburgh. One of the better performances by any unit on any level I’ve seen in a long time but it wasn’t enough. This shouldn’t be too much trouble for Tampa Bay.

Ray Rice has been in beast mode this season.

Rusty Ryan’s Picks

Lions at Cowboys

I have no faith in Romo and with Felix Jones being injured, Miles Austin out, and Dez Bryant dinged up, there’s not going to be a ton of offensive production.  The Lions are the hot team this year and they have shown how good they are at different times throughout the season.  This will be their true “welcome to the big time” moment.

Fantasy Value:  Tashard Choice has apparently been getting more carries in practice than rookie DeMarco Murray.  Should anything happen to Jones, Choice is the better fantasy option.

Bills at Bengals

How exciting have the Bills been this season?  They’ve had the two games of the week on consecutive Sundays, involved in a shootout with the Raiders and then a 21-point comeback against the Patriots.  The Bengals are floundering on offense and when the best offensive player is a rookie wide receiver who is getting passes from a rookie quarterback with the running back possibly going to jail, that’s not a recipe for success.

Fantasy value:  David Nelson, a wide receiver for the Bills, has the same number of targets, catches, and receiving yards as more notable Bill Steve Johnson.  The only difference in their points is that Johnson has had some touchdown catches through four weeks.

Panthers at Bears

Newton is great at playing from behind and getting backdoor covers.  This has to be the week he gets his first win as a starting quarterback against a team with a pulse.  I’m not sold yet on the Bears either.  They may be getting too much credit for the win opening weekend against the Falcons.

Fantasy value:  Stewart has been a better running back than Williams thus far.  Williams is getting paid the most out of anyone on this offense, at some point he has to be producing fantasy points.

Vikings at Chiefs

Dexter McCluster is a poor man's Percy Harvin

The Chiefs season is over.  They had a heartbreaking loss last week and the Vikings have to know how to not blow a lead now.  If the Vikings just keep handing it off to Adrian Peterson and continually rush the passer all four quarters, this one should be a good win.

Fantasy Value:  Dexter McCluster will have more fantasy points the rest of the season than Thomas Jones.  Jones may get more carries, but McCluster has much higher yards per touch and is a playmaker.

Titans at Browns

This is a toss-up.  With the loss of Kenny Britt the Titans have nowhere to go through the air and former stud Chris Johnson died three weeks ago and has his corpse playing and is one of the biggest fantasy busts in history.

Fantasy:  Chris Johnson is almost cut-able unless you’re in a keeper or dynasty league.

Redskins beat Rams

The Redskins are legit this year and the Rams are having a lot of troubles.  The team from St. Louis has been plagued by injuries and now take on a balanced offense led by a resurgent Rex Grossman.  Who knew?

Fantasy value:  Shanahan said that they were thinking of making Roy Helu the starter over Hightower.  Pick up Helu if he’s available in your league.

49ers at Eagles

The 49ers may have a few wins under their belt and be the best team in the NFC West, but this week they take on Mike Vick and the Eagles.  Gore and Hunter are going to be splitting carries this week and will be a good test for a struggling Eagle rush defense.

Fantasy Value:  Vick may be at the point where you might want to bench him if you have a great backup, such as Ryan Fitzpatrick.  It’s tough to win when Vick only is in for a half or is limited.

Saints at Jaguars

There’s no way the Jags can keep this close.  The Saints are going to throw everywhere all over the field and when

Drew Brees, my fantasy hero.

the best offensive weapon for the Jaguars is a running back in Maurice Jones-Drew who doesn’t pull away from people, playing from behind is a death sentence.

Fantasy Value:  Drew Brees has been one of the most consistent quarterbacks so far this season in producing an absurd amount of points.  The only person doing it better is Tom Brady.

Steelers at Texans

The Texans, like the Lions, are one of the hotter teams so far.  Unlike the Lions, I don’t see the Texans being super stars or beating them.  The Steelers offensive line woes have been covered well by Big Ben’s mobility but I think the Steel City can take this one.

Fantasy Value:  Rashard Mendenhall is wearing down and his backups are probably good fantasy benchwarmers waiting in the wings.  He’s cursed by the 370-carry mark he absorbed last season.  It’s science.

Giants at Cards

Eli Manning got his groove back, throwing for 4 touchdowns last week.  The Arizona secondary is awful and has gotten shredded almost every week.  Larry Fitzgerald is helped out a lot by Kevin Kolb, but Kolb is still average.

Fantasy Value:  Hopefully Mario Manningham gets some production this week against a poor secondary.  Manning needs to spread it around.

Falcons at Seahawks

I want to give the Seahawks the edge since they are at home.  CenturyLink field is the biggest home field advantage in the NFL and is probably worth four points.  It’s hard to ignore all the talent on the Falcon’s offense with Julio Jones, Roddy White, Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez, and Matt Ryan.  I just don’t think the Seahawks can keep up.

Fantasy Value:  There isn’t a single player on the Seahawks roster worth starting.  Marshawn Lynch could be a flex position in deeper leagues.  Watch Julio Jones to see if he can get some touchdowns against the Seahawks.

Broncos at Packers

The Broncos are in turmoil and the Packers are clicking.  There’s no way the Broncos can compete for the full 60 minutes.  I wouldn’t pick the Packers to cover though.

Fantasy value:  Jermichael Finley is easily the best tight end in the NFL right now in terms of fantasy.  I feel bad for everyone who totally bought in to Matthew Berry’s selling point of reaching for Gates in the first four rounds.

Dolphins at Chargers

The Dolphins are without Daniel Thomas and have to rely on Reggie Bush.  The passing attack has been good so far in Miami but it will be interesting to see them take on a good defense that runs a 3-4.

Fantasy Value:  The split in carries between Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews has been interesting.  They’ve taken terms getting the majority of the touches each game.  I hope there’s some pattern that shows up this week.

Patriots at Raiders

The Patriots defense is average to below average.  They can’t stop anyone, and with Darren McFadden hitting his stride it could be lethal.  Welker and Brady have teamed up for the best passing and catching duo in professional football.  It will come down to if the Pats defense mans up and goes hard in the paint.

Fantasy Value:  The law firm BenJarvus Green-Ellis struggled the last game and Scott Riddley got the same number of carries.  If the law firm doesn’t do well or we see a dramatic shift in carries, I’m jumping ship on him.

Jets at Ravens

A battle between run-first teams with good defenses.  This is my game of the week.  Ray Rice has been unreal so far and Sanchez has had to throw the ball much more than the Jets probably want him to.  These teams are so similar but the Ravens have a slight edge at quarterback with Joe Flacco and have home field advantage.

Fantasy Value:  Santonio Holmes is the top target for Sanchez but hasn’t produced many points.  Let’s hope that changes soon.  With the number of targets Holmes gets he has to produce points soon.

Colts at Bucs

This game I think could go to the Colts.  The team is clearly better with Curtis Painter at quarterback.  Last week they looked competitive and if they catch the Bucs on an off day, this game could be won on the road.  I’m sure not picking the Bucs to cover.

Fantasy Value:  I like Blount more than I did at the beginning of the season and like Mike Williams a lot less.

Share on Tumblr