NCAA WEEK 9 PICKS AND PREVIEW
National Picks Record This Season: 61-41
National Picks Record Last Week: 8-4
West Virginia (-6) at Connecticut
Connecticut has yet to beat a solid team, or even keep it close with one.
It’s tricky to bet on teams after they lose to a bad team. Take West Virginia. They kept close with LSU and won every other game. However, last week they lost to Syracuse. Syracuse! After taking a closer look you’ll see that the Mountaineers committed three turnovers and had eight more first downs than the Orange. Don’t look in to last week’s game too much, because West Virginia will cover.
Clemson (-7) at Boston College
Boston College is on a five game losing streak. They host Clemson this weekend who has beaten the teams they are supposed to, and had close losses to teams that are better than the Tigers. I’m surprised the spread is only seven.
Michigan State at Iowa (-7)
There’s only so long that a team can have a miracle run. Michigan State has probably broken the record for most attempted fake special teams plays the past six weeks, and I think teams are going to be more prepared for the fake on every play. Northwestern had the Spartans beat, and then let it slip away.
Iowa was a popular pick to win the national title this year. They stumbled at Arizona in a game where they didn’t look like themselves, and then lost last week hosting a Wisconsin team that just beat the number one team in the country. The spread is a little larger than I feel comfortable with, but so many people have bet Michigan State in this scenario that the spread is (+110), meaning that if you put in a hundred dollars you’d get $110 after a win, contrary to the norm which is (-110), meaning you have to put in $110 to get $100.
Florida at Georgia (-1.5)
If I had told you at the beginning of the season that Florida would be an underdog to Georgia you would’ve thought that Georgia was that good and Florida must have stumbled at Alabama a little.
Fact of the matter is, Florida has looked pretty poor this year and got crushed at Alabama. Georgia doesn’t look much better and lost to Colorado. Colorado! The country’s most unstable coaching position! The coach knows he is only the coach because the school can’t buy out his contract!
But I digress. Florida’s Trey Burton, who once played six positions in one game, hasn’t had as much of an impact as his first game showed he would. I think he breaks out in “The Game Formerly Known as the World’s Largest Cocktail Party.”
Ultimately, there’s no way Urban Meyer loses four in a row. Urban Meyer will lose 4 in a row because his offense is at a standstill and he won’t adjust for new personnel.
Arizona (-9) at UCLA
The ultimate Jekyll & Hyde team this year is UCLA. They beat Texas, almost lost to Washington State, and got demolished by Oregon. The team that lost to Stanford 35-0 at home is going to show up this game. The players have to be wondering what is going on. Arizona has an inexperienced front seven on defense but has shown that they can stop the power running games (see Iowa).
Once you take in to account that UCLA can only run the football and has had poor play from every quarterback they’ve put in the game, it’s easy to make the quarterback win the game for UCLA.
Missouri at Nebraska (-7.5)
Thank you Missouri, for eliminating the pOUters from the national championship hunt. Even though your zone read play where you motion the running back in to the backfield didn’t work any of the times you ran it and you could see it from a mile away you got the job done.
Nebraska bounced back really well after the loss to Texas, by beating undefeated Oklahoma State by 10. Taylor Martinez looked like the Heisman contender everyone thought he was and Nebraska has one of the biggest home field advantages in college football.
Missouri played one of its best games of the season against Oklahoma, and this weekend will be a letdown.
Cal at Oregon State (-3)
Cal is 0-3 on the road with a points disadvantage of 11-54. Cal is 4-0 on the road with a points advantage of 189-34. It’s one of the most interesting facts in college football at this moment.
Unfortunately, Cal has to travel to Corvallis to play the Beavers. The Beavers only losses are to two top 5 teams and a game where Ryan Katz had one of the worst games ever. He threw three picks, a touchdown, and only 206 yards. Like the West Virginia game, you can’t put too much stock in to a team’s last game.
Oh, and Cal still has Kevin Riley throwing the ball.
(Last comment on OSU @ Washington. It was possibly the worst play calling I can remember when Oregon State was going for two in the second overtime. If you have a running back that has twice been all PAC-10, how do you not hand him the ball and ask him and the line to fall forward two yards. It’s ridiculous. Instead they let Ryan Katz, who had been off his game the entire time, the ball and the chance to win the game. This almost settles the Jacquizz v LaMichael James debate. James would’ve gotten the carry on the goal line with the game on the line.)
Auburn (-7) at Mississippi
If Masoli has any more allegiance to Oregon he will win this game. I can see the headlines already: “Masoli Leads Ducks to Number 1 BCS Ranking.”
Cam Newton is playing on a whole other level right now compared to other quarterbacks in the country. His performances have been mesmerizing. He is one of the few players in the country that I will watch a game just to watch him play along with:
Jake Locker: Just because I want to finally see if can do what every NFL and ESPN scout says he can.
Denard Robinson: His nickname is “Shoelace” and he is the other quarterback in the country that carries his team every week.
Terrelle Pryor: Because Ohio State is always on at 9 am after College Gameday, even if they are playing Youngstown State, and I always wonder how much better he would have been in the Oregon offense under Chip Kelly.
Travis Benjamin: He is an incredibly fast and exciting wide receiver for Miami. He also has some of the best dreads in college football. But I end up just watching clips from the 30 for 30 doc: The U, and dreaming of a good Hurricane team while watching the current Canes blow games.
Stanford (-7.5) at Washington
Washington has troubles stopping the run, as seen by their game against Arizona last week. It just so happens that Stanford is very good at running the football and they have the best NFL quarterback in the country.
Pete Carroll will definitely be in attendance, wondering which quarterback they are going to try too hard to get in the 2011 NFL Draft. Andrew Luck or Jake Locker?
Washington State (+21) at Arizona State
I’m like David Hasselhoff right now. I’m hooked on a feeling with one pick a week that is purely a gut instinct. Last week was Missouri over Oklahoma. This week, it’s Washington State covering, and scaring the Sun Devils. And no, I’m not absolutely wasted right now trying to eat a cheeseburger.
Michigan (-3) at Penn State
This is normally a huge matchup. This year it looks like Penn State won’t make a bowl game, their quarterback Bolden has a lot of questions surrounding him, and Joe Paterno will probably need another season to get his 400th win.
I heard something interesting the other day; that a hefty part Michigan fan base wants to get rid of Rich Rodriguez. Well Michigan fans, if you want to go through four years of rebuilding, find a bad coach because no one wants to move, and not beat Ohio State next year and possibly win the Big Ten, be my guest.
Oregon (-7) at USC
Big preview coming in a few hours on this one.
PAC-10 Picks This Year: 39-11
PAC-10 Picks Last Week: 3-1
Oregon beats USC
Oregon State beats Cal
Arizona State beats Washington State (UPSET ALERT!!!)
Stanford beats Washington
Arizona beats UCLA