Early Over/Under Predictions for PAC-12 Schools Oregon, Washington, UCLA, and USC [Sports Betting]
One of the best things about sports is sports betting. Vegas and bookmakers in many off shore accounts make lines that are predictive in nature in order to get equal bets on both sides. They are measurements of public opinion as well as estimates of what will actually occur. Here are early betting over/unders for the PAC-12 this year:
Remember, these over/unders apply to the regular season only and would not include wins obtained during bowl games or conference championship games.
This line is high for a couple reasons. First, the offense returns four linemen, Matt Barkley, Robert Woods, and Marqise Lee. Their passing attack will be strong this year and incredibly difficult to stop as they can protect the quarterback who can throw great passes to great receivers.
However, they travel to Stanford, a team they haven’t beaten since 2008 and they play the Cardinal in September. It is well documented how USC struggles early in the season as last year the Trojans almost lost Minnesota and Arizona while getting crushed by Arizona State. The Trojans host Oregon in a game that is a toss up. Under Lane Kiffin USC has lost a game a season against a team they shouldn’t and I would expect that trend to continue, which really leaves no room for error. I wouldn’t bet this line but if I had to I would pick the under.
Oregon doesn’t have many tricky games. They have the usual twilight zone trip to play at Cal the week after they play at USC. This means there is a probability that there is a hangover for the Cal game. To top off the three game stretch is Stanford making the trip Eugene. Stanford is very good but hasn’t matched up well the last two years against Oregon.
I would take the over as the only game they won’t be favored in is at USC and they could lose that game and still easily hit 11. I personally wouldn’t bet this line as my fandom for the Ducks clouds my thinking but if I had a gun to my head I would pick the over, which is currently good for even money.
The Huskies are an interesting case as their team has steadily improved under Steve Sarkisian and Keith Price is playing very well, but their defense has been absolutely awful. They gave up 38 points to Oregon State. OREGON STATE! They gave up 65 to Stanford, 35 to Oregon, 32 to Hawaii, 51 to Nebraska, and 27 to Eastern Washington. They gave up a lot of points to bad teams and got crushed by good ones. Sarkisian though cleaned house and brought in a ton of Ducks to coach the defense including Duck great Justin Wilcox. Wilcox coached the Boise State teams that beat Oregon twice before coaching at Tennessee when Oregon pulled away in the second half.
Washington hosts San Diego State, plays at LSU, hosts Portland State, hosts Stanford, plays at Oregon, and hosts USC. Best case scenario they are 2-4 coming out of that and there is a very real possibility that they go 1-5. Say they get two games by the time they finish playing USC, this means they need to get five wins out of Arizona, Oregon State, Cal, Utah, Colorado, and Washington State. To beat the over/under they need to win all those games and I just don’t think after getting pummeled to start the season they can bounce back well. They have tons of talent and the defense can’t get worse than their Alamo Bowl performance but it is maybe too big a turnaround in a year. I’m going with the under.
This is really a pick on how much you believe in Jim Mora. NFL coaches have failed before when going to coach college football, but it has worked before also. UCLA replaced Rick Neuheisel who has single handedly destroyed 24 college teams. Last year the Bruins got 6 wins after a 4-win season.
UCLA has got a lot of talent coming from great recruiting classes that somehow formed under losing seasons and Rick Neuheisel. Now they have Snoop Dogg’s and Diddy’s kids coming in next year.
Looking at the schedule, at Rice is a win, at Colorado is a win, at Washington State is a probable win, Arizona State is a win, and Oregon State is a win. That’s four wins right there and a maybe. Houston is a maybe after their turnover and Arizona is a probable win. USC, Stanford, Oregon, and Nebraska are definite losses. The Bruins need to win two out of their four maybes. I think Jim Mora Jr. can help a lot in terms of executing game plans and just looking like they are prepared on a week-to-week basis. I have faith they will pull it out a couple times. Over.